CASE STUDY

Futures of Seafood

Wild. Aquaculture. Recreational. First Nations.

THE CHALLENGE

Australia’s seafood industry faced an unprecedented challenge. Multiple ocean users were competing for the same marine space. Offshore wind farms, marine parks, shipping routes, and other industries were expanding rapidly, but no one knew the cumulative impact on seafood production. The industry lacked a comprehensive view of where and how intensifying ocean demands would affect fishing grounds and aquaculture operations. Without spatial data showing the overlap between seafood production and competing uses, the industry couldn’t effectively participate in policy decisions. Seafood operators faced uncertainty about their future access to fishing grounds. There was no single source of truth or facts about Australia’s seafood system or framework for understanding how multiple policy decisions would compound over time.

Futures of Seafood

Wild. Aquaculture. Recreational. First Nations.

THE CHALLENGE

Australia’s seafood industry faced an unprecedented challenge. Multiple ocean users were competing for the same marine space. Offshore wind farms, marine parks, shipping routes, and other industries were expanding rapidly, but no one knew the cumulative impact on seafood production. The industry lacked a comprehensive view of where and how intensifying ocean demands would affect fishing grounds and aquaculture operations. Without spatial data showing the overlap between seafood production and competing uses, the industry couldn’t effectively participate in policy decisions. Seafood operators faced uncertainty about their future access to fishing grounds. There was no single source of truth or facts about Australia’s seafood system or framework for understanding how multiple policy decisions would compound over time.

The solution / outcome

The Futures of Seafood study created Australia’s first comprehensive national analysis of the seafood system and ocean estate competition. Over 18 months, the team mapped two decades of seafood production data (2002-present) alongside emerging ocean uses projected to 2040.

The journey involved extensive collaboration. The team held numerous workshops across all jurisdictions, developed surveys and held interviews with industry operators, and worked with jurisdictional peak bodies to gather insights. CSIRO created approximately 1,000 maps showing fisheries and aquaculture operations over time. Atlantis Consulting produced 137 commercial fishery profiles, 64 aquaculture profiles, and detailed case studies. Key innovations included developing the first-ever datasets for emerging uses like FAD networks and artificial reef systems.

BDO mapped the complete post-harvest supply chain from production to consumption, revealing the seafood sector’s full economic footprint. The team built scenario modelling tools that simulate various futures, predicting impacts on productivity, sustainability, and regional communities.

The study is delivering a public-facing data portal and atlas, making complex spatial information accessible to industry and policymakers. Outputs became available, creating unprecedented transparency about Australia’s seafood system.

Australian seafood is amongst the best in the world but is only available to consumers if we have continued access to our oceans and coastal areas. The critical need for this study is to understand the breaking points and challenges to be faced and identify the growth opportunities for the futures of the Australian seafood industry.

Veronica Papacosta,
CEO, Seafood Industry Australia

The impact

The Futures of Seafood study is transforming how Australia approaches ocean management. For the first time, the seafood industry has evidence-based tools to engage in marine spatial planning discussions. The study secured $7.45 million in combined funding and in-kind support, demonstrating unprecedented collaboration across government and industry. It produced tangible assets: spatial maps showing production areas, economic data valuing the supply chain at each stage, and scenario models predicting regional impacts of policy decisions.

Industry operators now have access to jurisdictional insights reports, contemporary seaFoodscape analysis, and frameworks for managing cumulative impacts. The BDO supply chain analysis provided the first comprehensive snapshot of post-harvest activity, including employment, output, and household income contributions by region. CRC Program funding alongside other funders FRDC, DAFF and DCCEEW, has enabled this watershed study to bring together fragmented data sources into one trusted system. The scenario modelling capabilities give industry concrete evidence when engaging with policymakers about offshore wind developments, marine park expansions, and other competing uses.

WHAT’S NEXT?

The study team is developing legacy plans to transform one-off deliverables into ongoing resources. Work is underway to enable routine updates for the spatial atlas, supply chain dashboards, and fishery profiles. Western Australia has already expressed interest in next-generation scenario modelling for state-specific applications. The seaFoodscape analysis is being adapted as a routine monitoring tool. Discussions are progressing with international bodies.

The final synthesis phase (December 2025) will deliver industry-specific frameworks and tactical guides on hot issues. These tools will help operators navigate rapid transitions in ocean use, manage risks, and maintain their social licence. The project establishes a model for collaborative ocean research. Future applications could extend the methodology to other marine industries or regions facing similar cumulative impact challenges.